Tuesday, November 30, 2010

More Ciruli and the last election

In ancient Greece, kings and generals came to the Oracle at Delphi to seek out predictions for the future. Today we turn to pollsters to find out which trends might forge the future. One Greek general asked the oracle: "If I go into battle, will I win the battle?" The oracle responded, "If you go into battle, a mighty kingdom will be destroyed." The general lost, but the oracle still spoke only the truth. She forgot to mention the destroyed kingdom was his own.

Floyd Ciruli, Colorado's top poll taker pointed out recently in a talk at City Club that Ken Buck lost the campaign for Senate in the last two weeks of the campaign. Buck underperformed his statewide ticket. Floyd said that lots of voters turned in their ballots early. He joked that those early voters were probably women voters who know in which drawer in the desk has the stamps. He believes men usually wait until later during the campaign to vote.

Floyd speculates that the Bennet campaign conjured up a good strategy with the ads announcing Buck was too extreme for Colorado. Buck was ahead in polling in August and September leading Bennet by 5%. However, the Bennet campaign saw a vulnerability, especially with women voters, after Buck's disastrous shooting himself in his foot on a national TV interview. So Buck gave the voters evidence that he was too extreme for Colorado and it resonated with voters. Floyd said he thinks women voters are a large percentage of the small number of votes, 14,000 votes, which put Bennet over the top for the Senate seat here in Colorado.

Bennet topped Buck in women voters in an October 21, 2010 poll by 53% to 40%. In that same poll, Independents favored Bennet over Buck 46% to 44% not much of a difference. This poll back up Floyd's previous speculation.

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